Author:
Yahaya Amina Ishaku, Yahaya Haruna Umar

Doi: 10.26480/jtin.01.2026.20.29

This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License CC BY 4.0, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited

Tin and Nickel stocks in Nigeria’s stock market is crucial for understanding market dynamics, managing investment risks, and improving forecasting accuracy, given their economic significance in industrial production, trade, and financial stability. This study therefore, investigates the volatility dynamics of these base metal stocks (Tin and Nickel) in Nigeria’s stock market using asymmetric GARCH models over the period (1960–2024). Estimation results reveal significant volatility clustering and persistence, with the GARCH(1,1) and its asymmetric variants (EGARCH and CGARCH) demonstrating high explanatory power. For Nickel, the CGARCH model exhibited the best performance, as indicated by the highest log-likelihood value (1164.653) and the lowest AIC (-3.001692) and SIC (-2.965560) values, confirming the presence of asymmetric effects. Similarly, for Tin stocks, the EGARCH model performed best, with a log-likelihood of 1274.756, AIC of – 3.289523, and SIC of -3.259413. These findings confirm that volatility shocks in both metals exhibit asymmetric effects, where negative shocks generate higher volatility than positive shocks of the same magnitude. These results suggest that investors and policymakers should account for asymmetric volatility in risk management and trading strategies. The study recommends adopting CGARCH and EGARCH models for Nickel and Tin respectively for improved forecasting accuracy and financial decision-making in Nigeria’s stock market.